What Goes Up Must Come Down: The Aftermath of the Arab Spring

Protestors in Egypt running from security forces. From The New York Times

We all heard and read about the Arab Spring revolutions beginning in December of 2010, which have so far resulted in Ben Ali's resignation and flight to Saudi Arabia, Mubarak's resignation and Qaddafi's death at the hands of the rebels on October 20th, among other things. But there is much more to revolution than just getting rid of the leaders. Tunisia's first free election on October 24th went very well. Of course some people were unhappy and some protests occurred, but that's not very concerning. Tunisia's success, however, does not necessarily foreshadow success in Libya or Egypt. Tunisia has a largely apolitical military, as well as a fairly homogeneous population with a history of a unified national identity. The apolitical military certainly helped Tunisia out, as Egypt is not having much luck with its military interim government.

Today's New York Times featured an article, available here, on renewed protests in Egypt against the interim military government. The catalyst was a provision the constitution allowing for the military to intervene in civilian politics. Of course, that is only one part of the military government's abuses. The article notes that "After pledging to turn over power to civilians by September, the military postponed the handover until after the ratification of a constitution and the election of a president, sometime in 2013 or later." As long as the time frame for turning over power to civilians contains the words  "or later," I find it difficult to be very optimistic about Egypt's future. The military can always postpone, and postpone, and postpone. However, the new protests show that the people are not blind to what is going on, so I do have hope for a democratic Egypt.

The situation in Egypt constantly evolving and changing, and I am interested to see it unfolds. What do you think? Will the uprising's hopes be realized?